Macroeconomic Bulletin - FGV IBRE

Take a look at the January Macroeconomic Bulletin of The Brazilian Institute of Economics – FGV IBRE!

This month’s edition talks about - Measured optimism.

The external situation began the year relatively favorably. There are clearer signs of stabilization in world economic activity, after months of deceleration, with most economic indicators signaling a reduction in the risk of a global recession in 2020.

This is therefore better than in 2019, a year that was marked by different sources of international tension, viewed as potential triggers of a possible (and feared) recession. The industrial sector, which was the most affected by the reduction in world trade, has shown a slight recovery in Europe and most Asian countries. In the United States, the data still indicates weakness in this sector. However, the service sector remains very resilient. In fact, in the vast majority of countries, there is a mismatch not just between the industrial sector and service sector, but also between investment and household consumption. The latter is sustained by a labor market that remains quite favorable.

It is also important to moderate our optimism so that we do not neglect the government’s reforms, which continue to be highly necessary. In fact, it is important to emphasize that within Brazil, the main risk is that the sense of urgency may lessen in this second year of the Bolsonaro administration. The tendency to delay the adoption of solutions to Brazil’s structural problems exists, and this may increase as the economy’s cyclical recovery advances.

Enjoy the reading!

Biogas: innovation and sustainability for waste and wastewater

This publication brings to the debate the use of biogas as an integrated solution of innovation, circular economy and natural capital conservation, in support of sustainable development. The biogas sector is analysed from the angle of the energetic utilization of biomass from sewage and municipal solid waste.

The use of this type of biogas is expanding in the international market, especially in Europe, and constitutes an excellent opportunity for the generation of new businesses in countries with great potential for bioenergy production such as Brazil.

In addition, strategic considerations are made for the strengthening of the biogas market in Brazil, highlighting the importance of technology transfer and absorption from mature markets, like the European one.

Enjoy the reading!

Series of publications about agriculture by FGV and Anufood

As a knowledge partner of Koelnmesse, responsible to bringing to Brazil an exclusive trade fair for the food and beverage industry - Anufood Brazil 2019, FGV developed exclusive sectoral studies intended to provide an in-depth analysis on specific sector issues to help businesses, policymakers, and the like, in their decision-making process. Doing so, we produced the following 9 reports:

1. The Brazilian Cachaça Industry. Download.

2. The Brazilian Meat Sector. Download.

3. The Brazilian Beer and Wine Industry. Download.

4. The Juice and Tea Industry in Brazil. Download.

5. The Brazilian Chocolate, Peanuts, and Candies Industry. Download.

6. Brazilian Coffee Industry. Download.

7. The Truck Drivers' Strike. Download.

8. The Brazilian Dairy Sector. Download.

9. The Brazilian Wheat Sector. Download.

AGRIBUSINESS

The bilingual publication by FGV Projetos has the theme of agribusiness. The publication features an interview with FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva, which addresses issues related to global hunger eradication and sustainable production. This is a document of Roberto Rodrigues that presents the perspectives for agribusiness and an agriculture in Brazil, considering the increase of the world population by 2050, according to the United Nations. With articles of interest in the area, "Agribusiness" seeks to promote a discussion on the subject, situating itself in the country as one of the main players in the production and export of products such as soy, coffee, meat etc.

NATURAL CAPITAL, ECO SYSTEMIC SERVICES AND INNOVATION: PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR BRAZIL

"Natural Capital, Eco systemic Services and Innovation: Perspects and Opportunities for Brazil" is a bilingual publication that reflects on the complex human-nature relationship, seeking to value environmental assets to show the benefits generated by a more sustainable use of resources and to insert the approach decision-making processes of governments and companies. As a starting point, the authors analyze the environmental situation in Brazil and in the world, adopt perspectives and opportunities for sustainable development, present concepts considered strategic, such as natural capital and ecosystem services, and address the role of innovation in protection and recovery natural resources and boosting the green economy.

ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS: NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES

This publication is the result of the three-day conference held in 2017, which was composed of master classes, workshops, and seminars, organized by FGV Projetos with the support of the Consulate General of the Federal Republic of Germany in Rio de Janeiro.

With technical guidance from Carlos Augusto Costa and Silvia Finguerut, project coordinators of FGV Projetos, the book seeks, throughout its four chapters, to encourage the study and improvement of public policies to prevent other disasters of this size from happening, raising important issues on environmental recovery and socioeconomic development.

Legal Amazon – Proposals for Sustainable Agricultural Development

Held in partnership with the Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Agribusiness Centre (GV Agro), this bilingual study examines sustainable development proposals for agricultural and livestock production in the Legal Amazon, an area of more than 500 million hectares covering states in Brazil’s North, Northeast and Mid-West regions. The region is notable for its natural resource wealth and importance in the carbon cycle and regulation of global climate. The study also offers a retrospective of deforestation in the region over recent decades, traces the history of local agricultural and livestock production and considers the question of social vulnerability, in addition to presenting a methodology for classifying and identifying low carbon-emission agricultural and livestock systems, examining their economic feasibility and analysing related public proposals.

Brazilian Agribusiness: China and International Trade

Brazilian Agribusiness: China and International Trade is a bilingual publication produced in partnership with the Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Agribusiness Centre (GV Agro). The study focusses on Brazilian agribusiness, which in recent decades has played an important role in expanding Brazil’s international trade and its bilateral relations with China, which in addition to being the second largest global economy and one of the world’s main consumer markets, is one of Brazil’s major trade partners. Accordingly, the study addresses not just the entry of Brazilian agribusiness into global value chains, examining the new export list and international investment flows, but offers a wide-ranging analysis of the Chinese economy, pointing to challenges and opportunities, particularly as concerns agribusiness and relations with Brazil.

Sustainable Cities

The bilingual 30th issue of Cadernos FGV Projetos, on the theme of Sustainable Cities, features an interview of Simone Raskob, Environment and Building consultant in Essen, Germany, and leader of the project that won the city the title of Green Capital of Europe 2017. This issue also includes contributions from Elizabeth Yee, Vice-President for Solutions for Cities of the 100 Resilient Cities programme, and Marilene Ramos, Director of the BNDES and Professor of the Ebape/FGV, who spoke about how their institutions have worked to foster more sustainable, resilient practices in Brazil and around the world. The Caderno also offers articles by experts and urban managers, including Researcher and Project Leader Clara Brandi, of the German Development Institute (DIE) (“The role of cities: implementation of Agenda 2030 and the Paris Agreement”), Under-Secretary for Urbanism and Urban Mobility of the Niterói Municipal Government, Rogério Gutierrez (“Urban sustainability and resilience: data, information and technology as territorial management tools”), ITS Rio members, Ronaldo Lemos, Fabro Steibel and Victor Vicente (“Citizens participation and the environmental crisis in cities”), as well as pieces by FGV Professor, Rossana Pavanelli (“Business models in the collaborative economy”), FGV Projetos Coordinators, Carlos Augusto Costa (“Smart cities: the challenge of sustainable planning”), Marco Contardi and Marco Saverio Ristuccia (“Smart sustainable cities: innovative urban changes in Brazil”) and other leading urban planning and urban development professionals.

Compliance, management and business culture

The 28th edition of Cadernos FGV Projetos concerns the theme “Compliance, Management and Corporate Culture”. This bilingual publication includes an interview with Benjamin Zymler, the Minister of Brazil´s Federal Court of Accounts, testimonials by Peter Eigen, Founder of the Advisory Council of Transparency International, and Reinaldo Makoto Goto, Director of Compliance at Seimens Brazil. Patrick Moulette, Chief of the Anticorruption Division of the OECD, and Christine Uriarte, Senior Judicial Analyst of the Anticorruption Division at OECD, also participate in the publication analyzing the impact of corporative compliance in the OECD Convention on Combatting Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in international transactions. Moreover, the publication also includes articles by Regis Fichtner (“Compliance and Brazilian Law: Possibilities and limits for private businesses), Ricardo Simonsen (“The challenges of compliance”), Mário Engler (“Corruption, governance, ethics and compliance”) and Carlos Ari Sundfeld (“Compliance: a reflection on the control systems in the public and private sectors”).

Smart Cities and Urban Mobility

New bilingual edition of Cadernos FGV Projetos No. 24: Smart Cities and Urban Mobility. The publication brings together interviews, testimonials and articles that discuss solutions and challenges for the creation of smarter cities, not only concerning solutions offered by technological development, but also by innovative management models. Urban planners and leaders, such as the former Mayor of Bogotá and the director of the Operations Center of Rio de Janeiro, present some of the endeavors to create smarter cities.

Football and Socioeconomic Development

With the approach of the 2014 World Cup, this issue of Cadernos FGV Projetos covers the productive chain in football and its reflections on the growth of the Brazilian GDP. If well harnessed, the World Cup, its new stadiums (Arenas) and enhanced professionalization of the management of clubs could take Brazilian football to the same position off-pitch as on the field. The publication includes interviews with the Minister for Sport, Aldo Rebelo; the Technical Coordinator of the Brazilian team, Carlos Alberto Parreira; and the President of Fifa, Joseph Blatter, among other renowned professionals of the sector. The English version was at the event II World Economy and Brazil, inaugurating a new graphic design in a lighter and more compact format, which represents a better use of paper (paperless). To achieve this new format, research was carried out with “Think Tanks”, using international editorial models as reference, such as the London Business School.

Infrastructure: Accelerating Brazil’s Growth

Brazil is becoming established as one of the major world economies and has transformed itself into a primarily urban country. In line with this trend, vast investments have been made in infrastructure in recent years, and this has also intensified due to the forthcoming major events such as the 2014 Football World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. This edition of "Cadernos FGV Projetos", published on the occasion of the III Brazil Infrastructure Investments Forum in the United States dedicated to the topic of Infrastructure, features some of the successful experiences that have contributed to the country's modernization. Various topics are discussed, from sanitation to civil construction, including transportation, telecommunications, logistics, investment, hiring and management models, as well as the challenges facing cities and municipalities and the key requirements of the sector. The publication will be released in English during the seminar and subsequently in Portuguese.

Rio and the Challenges for a Sustainable City

This edition of "Cadernos FGV Projetos" covers the moment of growth and consolidation of Rio de Janeiro city from the angle of sustainability. With this, FGV wants to propose new answers to the challenge of being sustainable in times of a fast-growth scenario, absorption of the impacts of investments in infrastructure, realization of events with international influence and tourism expansion on society, the environment and the economy.

Agribusiness in Brazil

FGV, together with the Agribusiness Center of the São Paulo School of Economics of FGV Foundation (GV Agro/EESP), has been at the forefront of major advances in Brazilian and international agribusiness. At the global level, FGV Foundation has worked together with the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and major international organizations to develop and implement economic and financial feasibility projects relating to agroenergy in several Tropical Belt countries. A number of technical cooperation agreements have been signed to facilitate work in this field, including partnerships between: (1) Brazil and the United States for the promotion and development of biomass energy in Central America and the Caribbean; (2) the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and African countries to develop biomass projects; and (3) the European Union and Brazil for a feasibility study of biofuel and foodstuff production in Mozambique. As a result of these initiatives, 13 countries have already been the subject of feasibility studies for the development of more than 50 biomass projects related to ethanol, biodiesel, electricity, steam, and foodstuffs. In this issue, FGV presents an overview of the current agribusiness scenario and its contribution to the world.

The Pharmaceuticals' Transportation Sector in Brazil

This study takes a close look at the medical transportation sector in Brazil, observing the complexity of this branch of the pharmaceutical industry and its peculiarities from an approach that considers the present competitive landscape and the effects of the primary changes that have taken place in recent years, as well as prospects for the area. In this context, the publication points to advances and obstacles in the development of the transport of medicine in the country, while also reflecting on the integration of different actors in the pharmaceutical chain.

Doing Business in Brazil

The 1st edition of the series Doing Business in Brazil: a Cross-Cultural Perspective provides a panorama about how the country´s culture influences the business environment in Brazil. Brazil is a multicultural country with a complex bureaucracy that may confuse and deter investors. This study offers an interdisciplinary analysis that examines the business environment in Brazil in the country´s cultural context, a key element for maximizing efficiency and effectiveness in business affairs.

Culture in the Brazilian Economy

In a globalized world, culture holds the potential to connect countries and economies. As a relevant topic for the economy, the cultural sector serves as a basis for the most recent study by FGV: “Culture in the Brazilian Economy”. The analysis, created in response to a challenge proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), intends to trace indicators to measure cultural participation in the Brazilian economy and society. Three fundamental aspects were considered: the public budget, the labor market and family consumption.

This publication is a part of the series of actions by FGV Projects aimed to highlight the cultural sector as an important element of socioeconomic development in Brazil.

Food Industry in Brazil

This study aims to present the structure of the Brazilian food supply chain and in South America, especially regarding the distribution model and retail structure. The high degree of dispersion of the latter can represent a strong opportunity not only for foreign investors, but also for companies interested in exporting exclusive goods.

Brazil Competitive Profile

This study analyzes the competitiveness of the Brazilian states by productivity sector and microregions, revealing a country with many investment opportunities and peculiarities arising from its diversity. The methodology utilized by the multidisciplinary group at FGV concerns the analysis of 14 areas that directly influence the country´s development, such as education, health, infrastructure, innovation, markets, agriculture and natural resources. The results obtained evaluate 224 indicators, incorporated into a competitiveness map of 558 microregions in Brazil.

Brazilian Agribusiness Overview

Aside from being an international leader in the production and exportation of orange juice, Brazil possesses a strong position in other sectors of the food market, such as grains, meats and dairy products. Coffee and sugar are two examples with high production and exportation indices. This publication, created in partnership with the Agribusiness Center of the Economics School of São Paulo, aims to highlight the country´s position in various agribusiness sectors in order to provide a broader understanding of Brazil´s role in the food market.

Brazilian Agribusiness: Competitive and Sustainable

The ABC Plan – Agricultura de Baixa Emissão de Carbono (Low Carbon Emission Agriculture) is a public policy composed of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farming (agriculture and cattle raising). To contribute to the viability and implementation of the plan, the Agribusiness Center of the Economics School of São Paulo (GV Agro), in partnership with GVCes, created the ABC Observatory, with the objective of realizing studies and promoting discussions about the topic. This publication, completed in partnership with GV Agro, presents the results of the plan using content gathered by the ABC Observatory.

Government Procurement Strategies in Brazil - Auction theory and "Big Data"

The study of FGV, coordinated by economist Fernando Blumenschein, develops a specific methodological framework for government procurement based on research conducted for the National Fund for Educational Development (Fundo Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Educação, FNDE). This study highlights the potential use of the concepts of the theory of auctions together with methods of analysis of "Big Data" in shaping public sessions.

Agroanalysis | Special Edition

The economic growth currently being experienced in Brazil is prompting Brazilian citizens to learn more about how their country functions, and also to become more demanding in terms of the services provided to them. Therefore, it is time for the State to begin upgrading the quality of its services through the modernization, transparency and efficiency of its systems. With this point in mind, the business school has compiled a publication on public administration and management of the Judiciary. The book covers a conference that was held in Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia to foster exchange of information between Brazilian and German speakers. It includes forewords from Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, president of FGV, and Gilmar Mendes, Supreme Court Justice (STF).

The Spanish economic crisis and Brazil’s electricity sector

Amid the recent global financial crisis which began in 2008, the dynamics of the Spanish capital has been marked by output signals from the public-utilities sector in Latin America, by the emphasis on natural monopolies and by a continued consolidation movement - either by Spanish companies buying out its competitors or selling assets to entities in other countries. The study "The Spanish economic crisis and Brazil´s electricity sector" examines in which ways this trend has been influencing the Brazilian electricity sector. With this goal, it examines the structure and the relations of these direct investments with the Brazilian regulatory environment in Spain and the Spanish financial environment. This publication also quantifies detailed evidence on the structure and the impact of the crisis on microeconomic and sectoral spheres.

Public Administration and Management of the Judiciary

The economic growth currently being experienced in Brazil is prompting Brazilian citizens to learn more about how their country functions, and also to become more demanding in terms of the services provided to them. Therefore, it is time for the State to begin upgrading the quality of its services through the modernization, transparency and efficiency of its systems. With this point in mind, the business school has compiled a publication on public administration and management of the Judiciary. The book covers a conference that was held in Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia to foster exchange of information between Brazilian and German speakers. It includes forewords from Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, president of FGV, and Gilmar Mendes, Supreme Court Justice (STF) .

Evaluation of the Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices

At the end of 2008, FGV sponsored a survey to analyze the determining factors behind food prices. Among the main conclusions of the study, it was established that the expansion in the production of biofuels – more precisely ethanol from sugar cane – was not a relevant factor for the rise in food prices observed over the course of the year 2008. What really contributed decisively to the rise in food prices was speculation in the futures markets and an increase in demand at a time when world stockpiles were low.

This publication - specially developed for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FGV Foundation’s seminar ‘Agribusiness in Brazil: Policies, Experiences and Perspectives” (Paris, November 2011) - updates the earlier work by investigating the causes of price increases.

Immigration as a Strategic Vector of Brazil's Socioeconomic and Institutional Development

Immigration as a Strategic Vector of Brazil's Socioeconomic and Institutional Development shows that Brazil is in urgent need of public policies to attract and retain highly skilled professionals in strategic areas for its socioeconomic development. The aim is to foster the development of strategic industries and advance in science, technology, and innovation, recognizing immigration as a vector of the development of human capital. On this basis, immigration policies must be articulated with analyses of skill shortages in the Brazilian labor market, with strategic perspectives for the short, medium and long term. This publication is the first of a series of strategic studies of public policy resulting from the partnership between FGV and Public Policy and Management Directorate (DAPP).

OECD Economic Survey of Brazil: Its Findings and Methodology

The OECD survey, presented in November at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, examines the main challenges facing Brazil in its recovery from the global economic crisis and proposes reforms to increase long-term growth, encourage investment and reduce poverty.

Art and Market in Brazil

Organized by the Director of FGV Projetos, Cesar Cunha Campos, with a preface by Paulo Herkenhoff, the book Art and Market in Brazil brings together texts by curators and professors like Federico Coelho, Ligia Canongia, Daniela Labra, Felipe Scovino and George Kornis, as well as specialists at FGV. The book offers different perspectives on various moments in Brazilian art as it relates to the creation of the art market. At times conflicting, the perspectives presented in the book contribute to the formation of a panorama that allows the reader to reflect on the nuances and paradoxes of this topic, little explored by the art world. The book is on sale at the Editora FGV.

Móvel Brasileiro Contemporâneo

FGV is once again prominent in the area of culture by publishing the continuation of Modern Brazilian Furniture, also idealized by the Director of FGV Projetos, Cesar Cunha Campos, coordinated by Silvia Finguerut and with Paulo Herkenhoff as editorial director.

Launched during the Design Rio Week in October 2013, the book “Móvel brasileiro contemporâneo” (Contemporary Brazilian Furniture) shows the production of furniture from the 1970s until today through the work of 63 leading names in the area, such as Índio da Costa, Claudia Moreira Salles, the Campana brothers, Isabela Vecci and Hugo França.

Deico Vieira

Conceived by the Director of FGV Projetos Cesar Cunha Campos and written by Paulo Herkenhoff, Decio Vieira is the first book about the life and work of the important Brazilian neo-concretism artist. Stemming from research developed over two years, Decio Vieira brings together 200 images and presents the diverse phases and experiences of the artist, including his first exhibitions, friendships, lectures and influences, highlighting especially Ivan Serpa and Alfredo Volpi. The work values the initiative by the Fundação Getulio Vargas, which in the 1940s formed a generation of artists through the Advertisment Design and Graphic Arts Course, where Decio began his artistic career in 1946. Other than this, the book includes the unpublished article “Decio Vieira e o neoconcretismo: vigor e lirismo”, written by the art critic Frederico Morais, coordinator of the Rio de Janeiro Museum of Modern Art courses while Decio lectured at the institution in the 1970s.

Móvel Brasileiro Moderno

FGV is also prominent in the area of culture, encouraging research and diffusion in the field of arts and culture. Conceived by the director of FGV Projetos, Cesar Cunha Campos and coordinated by Silvia Finguerut, with the editorial direction of Paulo Herkenhoff and the support of the CPDOC team, the book Móvel Brasileiro Moderno provides an overview of the recent history of furniture design in Brazil, from the 1920s to the 1960s.

The book contains images of real masterpieces translated into furniture, conceived by artists and designers like Gregori Warchavchik, Lucio Costa, Oscar Niemeyer, and Abraham Palatnik, among others. Among the pieces selected, some have been photographed for the first time. The launch of the book was on 2012