BRAZILIAN MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW – APRIL 2021 EDITION

The world accelerates but Brazil decelerates

According to Worldometer data, more than 140 million COVID-19 cases and over 3 million deaths have now been recorded across the world. However, the most notable thing is that these numbers are continuing to accelerate: the seven-day moving averages of deaths and new infections have reached 11,000 and 750,000 per day, respectively. With regard to new cases, the highlights are India, Brazil, the United States and Turkey. As for the number of new deaths, Brazil accounts for around 25% of the global total, while India accounts for nearly 15%.1 The numbers have recently stabilized in Brazil, but in India, they are unfortunately growing at a dizzying rate. Another point of concern is that the emergence of new strains of the virus may require the application of vaccine booster doses. In other words, there are still many obstacles to overcome the pandemic on a global level.

Despite a situation that is still very challenging in relation to controlling the pandemic, strong indications of global growth were confirmed in recent weeks, especially in developed countries and China. This good performance of global economic activity stems from a combination of advancing vaccination and the maintenance of fiscal and monetary stimulus in these countries. Thus, despite the challenges of getting the pandemic completely under control in many developed countries, companies have managed to adapt to the restrictions imposed by COVID-19, thereby reducing the economic impact.

In April, the Global Economic Barometers, published jointly by FGV IBRE and the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF), rose significantly for the second month in a row. All regions performed well in the month, in terms of both present and future prospects.2 According to the indicator’s sector data, all five surveyed sectors contributed positively to the aggregate result, confirming a more widespread recovery, even for services, the sector hardest hit by the pandemic.

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Any opinions expressed by Fundação Getulio Vargas’s staff members, duly identified as such, in articles and interviews published in any media, merely represent the opinions of these individuals and do not necessarily represent the institutional viewpoints or opinions of FGV. FGV Directive No. 19 / 2018.