Waiting for vaccines

As the year begins, there are different high-impact variables operating in opposite directions. On the one hand, imposing a contractionary effect, there is the second wave of the pandemic, which has led many governments to reinstate restrictions on economic activity and consumers to reduce their demand for services. On the other hand, there is the beginning of the vaccination process and the prospect of strong expansion in the world’s two largest economies. Not only the final result, but also the dynamics of growth this year, will depend on the intensity and temporal distribution of these two effects.

In the first quarter, at least, contractionary forces will tend to prevail. The signs indicate that the coronavirus pandemic will still take some time to be fully brought under control across the world. Even though vaccination began in December 2020, with a large number of doses available, the pace of immunization has been slower than expected in the vast majority of developed countries, due to logistical difficulties. Only recently has the vaccination process accelerated in the United States and United Kingdom. In the eurozone countries, on the other hand, the process remains very slow.

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